A central belief underpinning Russia’s war effort is that time is on Vladimir Putin’s side. This strategy of attrition—aimed at outlasting Ukraine’s military capacity and the West’s political will—is a critical factor looming over the upcoming Trump-Putin summit.
The attrition strategy is visible on the battlefield, where Russia uses its superior numbers and firepower to grind down Ukrainian defenses, as seen in the relentless assaults in Donetsk. The goal is not necessarily a quick victory, but a slow, costly war that exhausts its adversary.
This strategy extends to the political and economic spheres. Putin is likely betting that Western democracies, with their election cycles and public pressure, will eventually tire of supporting Ukraine. He may see the rise of leaders like Trump, who question the extent of U.S. commitments, as evidence that this strategy is working.
President Trump’s push for a quick diplomatic resolution is a direct challenge to this long-game approach. The Alaska summit will reveal whether Putin is genuinely willing to abandon his attrition strategy for a deal, or if he is simply using the talks as another way to buy time and wait for the West to fracture.